Elon Musk spricht in Davos mit Larry Fink beim WEF - The World Economic Forum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrB2tQDVLLo
Elon Musk spricht in Davos mit Larry Fink beim WEF - The World Economic Forum

That was not a That was not a large applause. Start again.
That's better. Thank you. Yeah, we're going to make this interesting.
How many how many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session?
Uh I don't know. I mean five. Okay. So uh good afternoon everyone. It's
great to see everybody here. Uh it's been an amazing week here in Davos. Um
hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations
here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may disagreed. There's many conversations we
may have agreed but through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today
um the world economic forum is here to have those conversations to have understandings and also resolution. So
um uh it's an important component of who we and what we are and I'm thrilled uh
to have Elon Musk here. Um he came all the way from California to
be here to see all of you. So uh thank you Elon. Uh you're most welcome.
Um I mean I heard I heard about heard about the formation of the the peace summit
and I was like is that uh is that piec uh
you know little piece of Greenland a little piece of Venezuela.
We we got one. All we want is peace. Okay. I'm going to uh as I said, I'm a
pretty proud uh CEO of Black Rockck since we went public. Um uh the
compounding return of Black Rockck to our shareholders with 21%. Uh since Elon took Tesla uh public, his
compounded return is 43%.
This is I just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be
investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when
Tesla went public and how much return would the all the pension funds
that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So, um, a spectacular
return. There's very few companies, well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has
that compounded return. So, congratulations. Thank you. It's a good measurement. Well, we have an incredible team at
Tesla and that's the reason. So, I want to get into uh the dirt, the
the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. Um I want
to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space and the progress ultimately coming
down to engineering engineering discipline scale execution.
Um and few few people if not anyone has the experience and the fortitude to
confront these issues headon. Not just the ideas but the execution across so
many different technologies. Elon and that's why I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here uh in
Davos. So you're presently building on AI, on robotics, on space, on energy all
at the same time. When you look across those efforts,
what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint? Uh well, they're all very difficult
technology challenges. Um but the uh the overall goal of my companies is
to maximize the future of civilization like basically maximize the probability that
civilization has a great future um and uh to expand consciousness beyond earth.
So take SpaceX for example that's SpaceX is about build advancing rocket
technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond earth. uh to the moon, to Mars, uh
eventually to other star systems. And uh and I think we should always view
consciousness uh life as we know it as as precarious and delicate. Um because
to the best of our knowledge, we we we don't know of life anywhere else. You
know, I'm often asked um are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am
one. But or you're from the future. They don't believe me. Okay. Um, so, uh, but I I I
think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. Um, and, uh, we we have 9,000 satellites up
there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an an alien spaceship.
So, I'm like, I don't know. It's bottom line is I think we need to assume that
life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us and if that's
the case then we need to do everything possible to to ensure that the the light
of can the light the light of consciousness is not extinguished because we're effectively the way I view
it is the image in my mind is of a a tiny candle in a vast darkness
tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. Um, and that's why it's
important to make life multilanetary uh such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on
Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Um,
te Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology and uh and and also at this
point we've we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance.
So with robotics and AI um this this is really the path to
abundance for all. If you say you know people often talk about uh solving global poverty or essentially
how how do we make give everyone a very high standard of living? I I think the
only way to do this is AI and robotics. um which which doesn't mean that it is
uh without its issues. I mean there's we need to be very careful with AI. We need
to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. Uh
you know Terminator he's he's great movies. Love his movies but but we don't want to be in
Terminator obviously. Um but but if you have um ubiquitous AI that is
essentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics uh then uh you will
have an an explosion in the in the global economy an expansion in the global economy that
is truly beyond all precedent. Elen, can that expansion be broad? Yes.
Or is it narrow? And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?
Yeah, it's I mean I mean a way to think of it is
that if you have a large number of humanoid robots um the economic output
is the average productivity per robot times
the number of robots, right? Um and and actually my prediction
is in the in the benign scenario of the future that we will the robots we will
actually make so many robots in AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning you won't be able to even
think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point
like like there will be such an abundance of goods and services because the my prediction is there'll be
there'll be more robots than people. So but how do you then have human purpose
in that scenario? Yeah, I mean, you know, there nothing's perfect, you know,
but um but I mean I mean it is it is a a
necessary um like you can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done uh um and uh
amazing abundance for all. Um because if it's if it's work that has to be done then then then you and and
only some people can do it then then you you you can't have abundance then it's narrow. It's narrow. Exactly.
So um but if if you if you have billions of humanoid robots and I think there
will be um then I think I think everyone on earth is going to have one and going to want one. Um because uh you would who
wouldn't want a robot to you know um assuming it's very safe uh watch over
your kids, take care of your pet. Uh if you have elderly parents uh a lot of
friends of mine said they have elderly parents. It's it's uh very difficult to take care of them. Expensive. Yeah, it's expensive and it's expensive
and there just aren't enough people to take care of the there aren't enough young people to take care of the old people,
right? Um so if you if they Um, if if you had a robot that could take care of and and
protect an an elderly parent, I think that would be great. That would be an amazing thing to have. Um, and and that
I think we will have those things. So, I mean, overall, I'm I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed
for a future of amazing abundance, uh, which is very cool. Um, and, uh, and and
definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. Um,
I don't think there's more a more interesting time in history. Can we uh can you and I reverse aging in
this new history or or or are we going to see it?
You know, I haven't I haven't put much time into uh the aging stuff. I I do
think it is a very solvable problem like like you can I think when when when we
figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. Um,
the reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some pretty much age at
the same rate. I've never seen someone with with an old left arm and a young
right arm ever in my life. Um, so why is that? It that means that
there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock, right, that is synchronizing across 35 trillion
cells in your body. Um and uh
you know the but there is some benefit to death by the way. It's like there's
there's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan. Uh because if you if you have if people do live
forever for very long time I think there's some risk of an oification of society of of things just getting kind
of locked in place. Um and uh
you know it it just may become um stalifying just not uh lack lack
vibrancy. Um but but that that said, do I think we'll figure out ways to extend
life and um and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely.
I'm looking forward to that. Yeah. Uh so um in the future that you
talk about AI models, autonomous machines, rockets depends on massive
increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy,
manufacturing scale, what are the bottlenecks to to get there? And then once again with all that
expenditures again, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow?
Um I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI
companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can and the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's
it's plummeting every year. I mean you almost the cost of AI is almost ch
meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis. There's open there's open models now everywhere. Yeah.
Yes. very there's open models um and the open models only lag they're maybe a
year behind right the the private the sort of closed models um so so I I think the the the ai
companies will seek as as many customers as possible which means they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world
but the cost of getting to there the compute the chips um the fab um the powering
that to me what are the what are the you know those are huge the limiting factor yeah I think the limiting factor for um AI deployment is
fundamentally electrical power it's just right it's energy yeah yeah um I mean we're seeing the the
rate of AI chip production increase exponentially but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh
3% 4% a year max yeah it's clear that we're we're we're for very soon, maybe even later this
year, uh we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on
except for China. China China is China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100 gawatts of nuclear
as we speak. Uh actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's I believe China's
production capacity on solar is 1500 gawatts a year. Um and they're deploying over 1,000 gawatts a year of of solar.
Um now you know for continuous solar load you divide that by roughly I don't
know four or five uh call it that's around uh 250 gawatts of steady state
power um paired with batteries um and that that's a very big number
that's half of the average power usage in the US right so US US power uh usage on average is is
500 gawatt uh China just in solar just like just in in in in solar like that
can provide steady state power uh and batteries can do half of the US
electricity output per year just with solar. Solar is by far the the the
biggest source of of of energy. Um and actually when you look beyond or even
even even on Earth but certainly beyond Earth u the sun rounds up to 100% of all
energy. This is an important thing to consider. Um so this the sun is 99.8%
of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about.1% and everything else is miscellaneous. Um now even if you were
to uh burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor uh the sun the
amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% because Jupiter is only.1%. If you teleported
teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system, the and and burnt three
more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's
energy would still round up to 100%. So, it's really all about the sun. Um
and that's that's why uh one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX uh in within a few years is
launching um solar powered AI satellites, right? Um because the space
is really the source of immense power and then you don't need to take up any room on earth. uh there's so much room
in space and you can scale to uh enormous uh I mean you can you can scale
to I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terowatts a year
you and I have had these conversations before but why don't you tell the audience what would it take for the
United States and what type of geography would it take to have that solar field
to electrify the United States And and then let me ask a question. Why aren't we doing it?
Yeah. So I mean I guess rough way to think about it is um 100 miles by 100
miles we'll call it 160 km by 160 km of of solar is enough to power the entire
United States. So the 100 100 mile mile by 100 mile
area is is I mean you could take basically a small corner of Utah, Nevada, Nevada, New Mexico. Obviously wouldn't
want it all in one place, but you can it's it is a very small percentage of the area of of the US to generate all of
the electricity that the US uses. Um and the same is true actually I mean for for
Europe you you could take a small part you could take uh relatively unpopulated
areas of say Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs.
So why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States?
Uh well there is as it is in China. Well, unfortunately in in the US the the
the tariff barriers for solar panel are are extremely high. Um and that makes
the economics of deploying solar uh so artificially high because China makes
almost all the solar um and uh and the what would it take for Europe or the US
to build it commercially if it's that scale?
Yeah, I I think I think uh well, I can tell you what what we're going to do,
you know, SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large scale solar,
right? So, the the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100
gawatts a year of solar power in the US of manufactured solar power. Um and um
that'll probably take us I don't know about three years or something. But that's these are pretty big numbers.
Mhm. Um and um you know I'd encourage others to the to do the same. Um
we obviously don't control the you know US tariff policy. uh but uh for for for
other countries uh I would re you know that there's China makes solar cells
that are incredibly low cost and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large
scale solo.
So, I know you are you're going to be having
a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those
robots. Yeah. Um, how quickly you talked about the
billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can
they be utilized and be functional and be uh create that that abundance that
you talked about? Well,
humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think uh we we we do have
some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory.
um except probably later this year by the end of this year I think they'll be
doing um more more complex tasks um and
and but still deployed in an industrial environment and uh and probably sometime
next year I'd say that by the by the end of next year I I think uh we'd be
selling humanoid robots uh to the public. um that that's when we are
confident that the it's very high reliability, very high safety um and the range of functionality is uh is also
very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like. You're already seeing that in Tesla cars
is the software changes that you're doing and what is it every quarter now a software change that upgrades the the
ability of the robot within the car. Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving
software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently some of the
insurance companies have said that uh it is actually so safe uh when where Tesla
full full self-driving is so safe that uh they're they're offering uh customers
half price insurance if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car
and that could be monitored by the insurance company. Can they is that part of the agreement then? Yeah.
Um but I I think self-driving cars is
essentially a solved problem at this point, right? Um and te Tesla's r rolled out uh sort of
robo taxi service in a few cities and right we'll uh I be very very widespread by
the end of this year within the US and then we we hope to get supervised full
self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month. Really that quickly?
Yeah. And then uh maybe a similar timing timing for China hopefully. I want to
move to space because historically space is very capital intensive. It historically been done by governments.
Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. Uh but we've seen it slow to
scale and now I'm starting to see it ramping up and what you're doing and other things. Um
talk to us about the resil you know the automation and AI how it's changing the economics in building uh and preparing
for us in operating in space. Uh sure. Um
well the key breakthrough that tells that that's the the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this
year is full reusability. Um so no one has ever achieved full
reusability of a rocket which is very important for the cost of access to space. Um we've achieved partial
reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. Um, but uh we we
have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. So, and that that the cost of
that is equivalent to a small to mediumsiz jet. So, um but with with
Starship, which is a giant rocket, it's it's the largest flying machine ever made. That's a rocket that you using for the
idea of going to Mars, right? Yeah. Mars and the moon. um as well as for uh high volume satellite stuff. So
Starship um hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for
Starship which will be um a a profound invention uh because
uh the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100
when you achieve full reusability. Um, right. It's it's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect that uh
between say a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have
to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. Um, but if you only have to
refuel, uh, then it's the cost of the fuel. And so that's really the uh
the the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh we
think uh below the cost of uh of freight on aircraft.
Uh so you know under under $100 a pound type
of thing easily. Um, so it it it makes uh putting large satellites into into
space very low, very very cheap. Um, and then when you have solar in space, you
you get uh five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that, than solar on the ground because
it's it's always sunny. It's cold. It Yeah, it's it's it's always Well, it's always sunny. So, you don't have a
dayight cycle or seasonality, right, or weather. Um and you get about uh 30%
more power in space uh because uh you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power,
right? The net effect is solar is five times more uh any given solar panel will do
five times more uh energy in space than uh on the ground.
Is there any capacity in doing that and and then taking that power and bringing it back to earth? Is there any way of
doing that or or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building um uh AI data centers in
the space? I I I think the the case it's it's a no-brainer for building uh AI
solar powered AI data centers in space. Um because as you mentioned it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if
you're if you're in the shadow uh then it's it's very cold in space just 3° Kelvin. So you just have you have solar
panels facing the sun and then uh a uh radiator that's like point like pointed
away from the sun. Um so it has no sun incident and then it's and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient
cooling system. So uh net net effect is that the lowest
cost place to put AI will be space and and that'll be true within two years
maybe three three at the latest. Wow. So looking 10 or 20 years out um what
would how would you describe success with AI or space technology and where do
you see it is that can you are you more certain what's going to happen in the next three years or or five or 10
I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years but the rate at which AI is progressing
I think we we're we're AI that is smarter than any human by the
end of this year. Um, and I would say no later than next year. Wow. Um, and then probably by 2030 or 2031,
call it 5 years from now, uh, AI will be smarter than uh, all of
humanity collectively. We only have a number of minutes left,
but I want I want to humanize you for a second so there's no speculation that you're
talking about peace. Right. Right. I want to I mean I would frame this question by you are the most
successful entrepreneur industrialist in the 21st century maybe beyond um I want
to so I want to really get this you know what inspired you who's inspired you
what was the foundation of of your curiosity and and importantly what was the what
was it was there a aha moment epiphany at any time in your life and career
Well, um I I mean as a kid I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi, fantasy
books. Yep. We talked about u and uh comic books. Uh and I always
liked technology. Uh I didn't expect to be where I am today. This seems incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah I
was I was inspired by reading about books about the future about science fiction and uh and I guess I want to
make science fiction not fiction forever at some point turn science fiction to science fact. Um, and uh,
you know, we want to have like Starfleet and Star Star Trek really for for real,
like where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to
other star systems. Be beamed up to go back to New York. You know, I I'd like to just be beamed
back to New York instead of flying. Yeah. um
talk about Star Trek. No, I guess my my my central I have what I would call the phil philosophy of
curiosity. I'd like to understand um the meaning of life, you know, the is the
standard model of is a standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence and the end of
the universe. Um what what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask?
Um, and AI will help us with these things. Um, so I'm just trying to
understand how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe they are. Um, and if if we've got
if we got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, uh, we may find we may encounter aliens and or we may
find many long dead alien civilizations. But I I I'm just I just I just want to
know what's going on. kind of curious about the the universe and um that's my philosophy.
Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? Uh yeah, I mean I would say like I you
know I that's a long commitment. I've been asked isn't that three years each way? Uh it's six months.
Six months. That's all it is? Yeah, six months. But the planets only align every every two years. Okay. So, uh, yeah, I've been asked a
few times like, "Do I want to, you know, die on Mars?" And I'm like, "Yes, but
just not on impact."
That's a good That's a good answer. Anyway, uh, we're out of time. I hopefully everybody enjoyed this. Um, I
mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. I could tell you he's a great friend and I constantly learn so much
from him. Um, and I'm totally inspired by what he's what he has done.
I've been inspired who he is and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the
future and I don't think it's such a bad future and I agree with his optimism. So Elon, thank you. Any last words? Um
um well I think generally I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited
about the future. Good. Um and and and generally I think for quality of life it is actually better to
on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist and right.
On that note
You know, I think it